Executive Summary

  • The Retailer Preference Index (RPI) report details which retailers have the strongest customer value proposition for driving future, long-term market success. The retailers in the 1st Quartile overall of our RPI rankings (those retailers ranked 1-20) are made up of a cross-section of best-in class regional supermarket formats and non-traditional, national banners in club, discount, online, and superstore formats. The retailer ranked 1st overall, for the fourth straight year, is H-E-B. Market Basket, Woodman’s, Costco, and Aldi round out the top 5.

  • dunnhumby analyzed customer and financial data for the 81 largest supermarket, discount, superstore, club, and online banners in the U.S. Customer data analyzed included perceptions of retailers’ value proposition in five different pillars, as well as stated behaviors and emotional connection with retailers. Financial data analyzed included market share, near-term, and long-term sales growth.

  • The customer perception pillar that is most associated with stronger, long-term market success is Price, Promotion and Rewards. Our advanced modelling of the data revealed that this pillar accounts for 41% of the variation in U.S. financial and customer outcomes. This means that retailers who have a competitive advantage in this area are more likely to achieve long-term success. The other four customer perception pillars, in descending order of impact on market outcomes, are: Quality of the assortment and experience, Digital experience elements, consistency of experience through Operations elements, and overall Speed and Convenience.

  • Last year, we predicted that a new customer mindset, solidifying around a heightened need for Savings, would become more permanent. In 2025, we saw that prediction proven right, with a twist. For the first time, we saw a notable increase in the importance of both Savings and Quality. We continued to see a decline in the importance of Digital experience elements, as more and more retailers get up to par on these capabilities, making them table stakes.​

  • Savings-First retailers like Walmart and Aldi are part of the reason for this trend. They are closing the gap in product quality perception to most of the rest of the market, while continuing to widen their price perception advantage. They are part of a larger quality convergence trend, where retailers who historically had quality perception disadvantages to their competitors are closing the gap, making it more of a battleground. At the same time, they are increasing their strengths in overall savings perception. As a result, they are driving superior results.
  • The U.S. grocery market can be divided into 7 observed customer value proposition groupings:

1.Quality-First Non-Conventionals (e.g. Sprouts, Whole Foods)

2.Quality-First Regionals (e.g. Publix, Hy-Vee)

3.Leaning Quality (e.g. Ingles, Mariano’s)

4.Leaning Savings (e.g. Kroger, Sam’s Club)

5.Savings-First (e.g. Grocery Outlet, Aldi, Walmart)

6.Unicorns (e.g. Costco, Trader Joe’s, H-E-B)

7.Undifferentiated (names not disclosed)

  • Differences in results between these groupings reveal that the U.S. has a consumer base that is becoming smarter and smarter, shopping more retailers up and down the Quality-Savings spectrum and leaving those who are merely leaning one way or undifferentiated behind. The Unicorns and Savings-First retailers have experienced the most growth over the past 5 years. In the past year, 2025, growth is pooling more at the extreme ends of the Quality-Savings spectrum. Both Quality-First Non-Conventionals and Savings-First retailers have widened their growth gap in the past year, compared to their strategic neighbors (Quality-focused regionals for the former and merely Savings-Leaning retailers for the latter).

  • This trend in increased polarity in the grocery market stands to benefit Savings-First retailers more than Quality-First Non-Conventionals. Savings-First retailers have vastly broader appeal than Quality-First Non-Conventionals and earn higher spend per customer. Savings-First retailers are shopped by 73% of U.S. shoppers, whereas Quality-First Non-Conventionals are shopped by only 18% of U.S. shoppers.

  • Savings is more important in the U.S. than in most countries, due to many factors, one being higher insecurity of basic human needs, relative to other developed markets in North America, Canada, and Europe. While the U.S. is top 10 in the world in per capita income, making it one of the wealthiest, there is an affordability crisis. According to the MIT Living Wage calculator and metrics from the Living Wage Institute, the median household income in nearly every designated market area (DMA) is below the income required to meet the standards of a basic living wage. This is due to high costs for food, housing, transportation, childcare, education, and utilities.

  • As a result, most Americans (56%) report an inability to cover an emergency $400 expense without having to borrow money. This metric has trended up since December 2024. Additionally, 58 million Americans report being food insecure and having to go without food at least sometimes, due to affordability reasons; this is more than the entire population of Canada and equal to the entire population of Italy.

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