Grocery 2053:
A Data-Driven Gaze into The Future
June 2023
What questions we’re here to answer
While market shifts have felt dramatic for the grocery industry over the past few years, the truth is the shifts that unfold over decades are much more consequential. It is not one five-year period in grocery history that will change the fortunes of retailers. Rather, grocers will rise or fall based on their ability to align themselves to the dominant demographics and trends (cultural, economic, and technological) that will slowly reshape market context over decades to come.
So, what are the trends that will have the biggest potential to reshape the competitive landscape over the next three decades, and what should retailers do about it? Which retailers in the top-quartile of our annual Retailer Preference Index can feel secure in their value proposition and customer composition today and are best positioned to win Customers’ hearts and pockets in 2053? Finally, which retailers might need to evolve and target different customers or watch their position fade?
Executive Summary
Amazon, H-E-B, Costco, Sam’s Club and Walmart are some of the best positioned grocers for 2053
Personal finances will remain the biggest stressor for Customers for decades to come and Fiscal Conservatism will remain top of mind for retailer and consumers alike.
The struggle between buying healthy and affordability is real, and Customers will expect to be able to fulfill their mental and personal health needs at prices that make sense to them.
As newer generations of Customers make up more of the population, the importance of new tech, sustainability, and new forms of consuming groceries in the retail space will continue to grow. But these needs will remain aspirational as newer generations of Customers -- just like previous generations -- seek to fulfill them only if financial and personal health needs are met first.
